Auctions

Values, estimates, provenance and being ‘on the money’

Recently Nick Miller, arts writer for The Age, interviewed me regarding how auction houses set their estimates and how often are they ‘on the money’, in light of the forthcoming marquee auctions in New York and in particularly the widely publicised “Shot Sage Blue Marilyn”, Lot 36A of Christie’s sale on 9 May**, with an “in-house” estimate of US$200m.

There are invariably a combination of factors or elements which inform estimates:

  •  firstly, the auction house endeavours to meet the Vendor’s instructions, albeit tempered by market specialist advice;

  • the estimate is in line with the reserve;

  • previous auction results for that artist and/or a similar work, i.e. composition, dimensions, and even year are taken into account;

  • provenance, the ‘pedigree’ or history of the artwork from artist’s studio to current owner is a vital component and comprises research and investigation into:

Ø  what collection has it come from and the significance of that collection;

Ø  how long has the work been in that collection;

Ø  was the work acquired from a gallery, dealer or auction house;

Ø  is it fresh to market, or, in the alternative, if the work has been at auction too often, even if it has sold, on occasions this can work to its detriment and all in likelihood the auction house will lower the estimate;

Ø  what is the condition of the artwork;

Ø  what are the current market values for the artist or that style of work, for example, is figuration currently the ‘choice de jour’;

Ø  what’s the market support for the artist? For example, is the artist having sell out exhibitions, being included in any major museum shows.  Gallery representation is also a significant factor, especially internationally, and when it comes to the higher end of the market; and, how many & which museums have collected work by the artist;

Ø  subject matter can also have a bearing on estimate setting: is it a pleasing subject or does the work present challenging motifs or iconography;

Ø  and finally, is the work in the catalogue raisonne? (a published inventory of all the artworks an artist has produced throughout their career).

In the case of a work by Andy Warhol, an auction house would include all of the above factors when setting estimates.  In addition, the inclusion of the work in the Warhol catalogue raisonne is also especially pertinent; Warhol’s output was considerable during his four enormously productive and intensely inventive decades.  Warhol’s market is also clear about favoured or coveted works; a ‘Marilyn’ work would reach a broader audience than say, a work from his ‘electric chair’ series.

And to the second part of the enquiry: how often are the auction estimates right?

I would suggest for the most part they are ‘on the money’; auction houses do know the market, know their clientele, and invariably before an auction they do have some sense as to the outcome of the sale. 

The strategy with setting the ‘right’ estimates is to enthuse potential buyers, and garner buoyant bidding at the sale; start too low or too high the work may pass at the sale; it could even become ‘burnt’, especially if it has been to auction before.  The ‘batting average’ is 85% by volume and 90% by value.

Auctions houses are at the behest of socio-political factors, the economy and indeed, the whims of collectors; so, there are occasions when they may misjudge the market.  But there are certain strategies which auction houses will utilise as a means of risk management.

So for example, the marketing department will devise specific PR campaigns in the lead up to selected sales; the house may tour part or all of a premium or blue chip auction; or, relegate a particular sale to another region, so perhaps Hong Kong for example may be the better platform for certain inventory; and with certain blue chip inventory, most US and more especially NY auction houses will invariably seek third party guarantees.  (As in the Macklowe Collection’s Warhol @ Sotheby’s which also has an irrevocable bid.)

**Since then, the work sold for a hammer price of US$170m, with fees the total sale price was US$195m, making it the most expensive work by a 20th-century artist ever to be sold at auction. Read about the auction here and other auction highlights of the week here

Read the full article here

Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report 2022

Art Basel Hong Kong, 2022

Key findings as follows:

Global Sales: Following its biggest recession in 10 years in 2020, the global art market recovered strongly in 2021, with aggregate sales of art and antiques by dealers and auction houses reaching an estimated $65.1 billion, up 29% from 2020, with values also surpassing pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

Leading Markets: The US market retained its leading position, shifting up slightly to 43% of worldwide sales by value. The Chinese art market was the second largest art market with 20%, while the UK slipped back to third place and 17%.

Dealer Figures: After a decline of 20% in 2020, aggregate sales reached an estimated $34.7 billion in 2021, increasing 18% year-on-year but still below the level of 2019. Across all dealers, a majority (61%) reported an increase in sales values year-on-year from 2020, 13% were stable, and 26% experienced a decline.

Auction Figures: Sales at public auction of fine and decorative art and antiques (excluding auction house private sales) reached an estimated $26.3 billion in 2021, an increase of 47% on 2020 driven by the supply of high-quality works coming onto the market, as well as an influx of new buyers.

NFTs: In 2021, 74% of HNW collectors surveyed by Arts Economics and UBS Investor Watch, had purchased art-based NFTs, with a median expenditure in this category of NFTs totaling $9,000 each. NFT sales also entered the traditional art market’s auction sector in 2021, but at limited values thus far.

Online Sales: The online market continued to expand, growing by a more moderate 7% in 2021 to reach an estimated $13.3 billion. Top-tier auction houses continued to introduce new formats and invested substantially in the quality and delivery of live-streamed and online-only auction platforms – the former producing some of the most successful live sales of the year – enabling a more continuous, year-round schedule rather than the traditional seasonal cycle of sales.

Art Fairs: In 2021, as the fair calendar resumed, even with a reduced number of fairs and limited capacity in some, art fair sales advanced to 29% (including OVRs) of dealer sales, up 7% in share year-on-year, but still nowhere close to the 43% reported in 2019.

HNW Collectors: Surveys of 2,339 HNW collectors conducted by Arts Economics and UBS Investor Watch across ten markets showed increased spending at high levels in 2021, with collectors having purchased more art and antiques in 2021 on average than they did in 2019 and 2020, reinforcing their importance in maintaining the strength of the art market during the pandemic.

Extract from Report by Dr Clare McAndrews

Bonhams, “Important Australian Art”, Sydney, 24 Aug 2021

Lot 14, GWYN HANSSEN PIGOTT (1935-2013), “Family Portrait”, 1996, woodfired porcelain, ten pieces, 26.0 x 48.5cm (10 1/4 x 19 1/8in). overall.  SOLD for $30,750 (incl. BP)

Lot 14, GWYN HANSSEN PIGOTT (1935-2013), “Family Portrait”, 1996, woodfired porcelain, ten pieces, 26.0 x 48.5cm (10 1/4 x 19 1/8in). overall. SOLD for $30,750 (incl. BP)

In what is becoming de rigeur in cataloguing a Fine Art auction, Bonhams commenced their online August sale with a line-up of relatively modest or typical for the era works by some well-known Impressionist and Modernist women artists; Dorritt Black, Janet Cumbrae-Stewart, market favourite Claire Beckett, May Gibbs and Florence Fuller. 

And whilst typically the first 6 to 8 lots of an auction can simply be the warm-up act to the ‘main event’, the high valued lots, we had only just comfortably arrived at Lot 4, Clarice Beckett’s “Moonlight and Calm Sea” when the tide certainly turned.  With a high estimate of $70K, bidding continued well beyond this anticipated figure with Beckett’s iconic 1931 oil finally selling for $116,850 (incl BP).  The enthused bidding continued for Lot 5’s small oil on card by May Gibbs with a final sale of $7380 (incl BP), again, well above its high estimate of $1800.  However, it was her next work at Lot 6, “Chrysanthemums” of 1894 which elicited perhaps an unexpected wash of collector competition, as the high estimate of $3000 was well and truly obliterated with the drawing room painting eventually selling for $39,360 (incl. BP). 

Lara Nicholls’s insightful catalogue essay regarding the fresh to market Lot 7 “Mother and Child”, by Florence Ada Fuller no doubt provided some of the impetus behind the strong bidding on this intimate and technically sublime oil on canvas, selling at an impressive $221,400 (incl. BP).

With a momentary lull in proceedings and perhaps some temporary respite in competitive bids, it was still a little surprising that Cressida Campbell’s screenprint at Lot 13 only just meeting its reserve, selling at $11,685 (incl. BP).  Gwynn Hanssen Piggot’s suite of woodfired porcelain at Lot 14 however sold well at $30,750 against a high estimate of $24,000. 

Other highlights from the sale included Jeffrey Smart’s elegant 1961 oil on board “The Road” which sold close to its high estimate of $350K for $393,600 (incl BP); the Lin Onus at Lot 34 continued the market’s support of this artist, albeit selling just under it high estimate of $60K, for $61,500 (incl. BP); “Crooked Tree, You Yangs” by Fred Williams at Lot 35 continued in the same manner, selling for $516,600 (incl. BP) against a high estimate of $550K; although John Coburn’s “Autumn Sun” at Lot 44 saw some engaged bidding, with a final sale price of $39,360 against its high estimate of $28K; and the recent fervour for all things Quilty slipped slightly with his very painterly “Flinders Street” of 2002 selling at mid estimate for $79,950 (incl BP).

Works of varying quality by Nolan, Boyd, Dickerson and Blackman saw mixed results, although pleasingly Lot 77, Arthur Boyd’s “Dry Dam, Wimmera” saw a respectable sale at $129,150 (incl BP) against its high estimate of $100K, with the proceeds of this sale to go towards supporting the work of Medecins sans Frontieres.

©Catherine Asquith 2021

Leonard Joel’s Prints & Multiples Sale, 28 July 2021

Lot 106, TOM BLACHFORD, (born 1987), “Untitled (Midnight Modern)”, 2018, archival pigment print, edition of 10, 89 x 133cm

Lot 106, TOM BLACHFORD, (born 1987), “Untitled (Midnight Modern)”, 2018, archival pigment print, edition of 10, 89 x 133cm

There seems to be something of a global re-assessment in the value of prints and multiples at present: Galerie LeLong in New York are currently exhibiting a curated group show of prints by well-established artists Etel Adnan, Leonardo Drew, Samuel Levi Jones, Jaume Plensa, Kate Shepherd, and Barthélémy Toguo; Stephen Friedman Gallery in London are presenting a series of unique screen prints spanning three years by Scottish artist, Claire Barclay; Photo London is intent on presenting a ‘live’ art fair in the first week of September, and closer to home, Menzies have announced its inaugural “Prints & Multiples” auction slated for an online edition in September.

Leonard Joel has been presenting its Prints and Multiples auction for some time now, and it is perhaps not surprising that this modest, yet highly successful sale continues to garner collectors and quality consignments. 

The major drawcard for their July sale was Banksy’s screenprint, “Jack and Jill (Police Kids)” of 2005 and with an estimate of $80K to $100K, sold for a hammer price of $90K.  The controversial street artist’s secondary market is now “booming”.  In just over two decades Banksy has gone from $300 per print to a total sales tally of $125,002,316, $48 million of which were generated solely from prints and multiples.

Invader’s “Prisoner” of 2007, a giclee print (and generally not as highly valued by the market) also elicited strong online bidding, selling for $14,500 on the hammer, well above its high estimate of $8K.   “Invader”, is the pseudonym adopted by Franck Slama, a French street artist born in 1969, and in like fashion to Banksy, (they’re collaborators and friends) Invader’s market has also witnessed a massive surge, with one of his works,TK_119, 2014, selling for a hammer price of US$1 million at Sotheby’s in New York in November 2019.

Elsewhere in the sale, John Coburn’s works represented at various lots also enjoyed good interest from multiple bidders; Hall Thorpe’s woodblock prints (scattered throughout the sale) all sold well and mostly, above their high estimates; and Barbara Brash’s 1955 modernist screenprint “ Red Bridge” from the estate of artist, Kenneth Jack, also sold above its high estimate.

Contemporary works also sold well; the two Del Kathryn Barton works (Lots 1 & 2) saw the auction commence with good energy both selling at either end of their estimates; the vibrant and fresh editioned pigment prints by Melinda Harper (Lots 96 & 129); Stephen Haley’s clever “Echohouse (Pink)” (Lot 105); and internationally profiled Tom Blachford’s “Midnight Modern” series seemingly struck a nostalgic chord with buyers. 

The 165 lot sale generated a total of AU$425,925 incl BP and a sale rate of 108% by value and 87% by number.

©Catherine Asquith 2021

Christie’s to increase its saleroom footprint in Hong Kong

The Henderson, Hong Kong by Zaha Hadid Architects for Henderson Land. Rendering by Arqui9, courtesy of Christie's.

The Henderson, Hong Kong by Zaha Hadid Architects for Henderson Land. Rendering by Arqui9, courtesy of Christie's.

As part of an an ambitious growth plan for the Asian market Christie’s has signed a 10-year lease on a new Hong Kong office space that will massively expand its presence in the booming Asian art market and allow for will now allow for six week-long sales held in-house throughout the year.

The British auction house will be an anchor tenant in the Henderson, a new skyscraper from Zaha Hadid Architects set for completion in 2023, according to the Art Newspaper. Christie’s plans to open up shop in 2024.  The larger premises will provide the space Christie’s presentation of large-scale artworks, live auctions, private sales, and educational programs.”

Read full article here: https://news.artnet.com/market/christies-hong-kong-new-location-1992791

 

Resilience and unexpected growth in global secondary market

Pandemic notwithstanding, auction results in the first half of this year have exceeded pre-pandemic levels at Christies, Sotheby’s, and Phillips: global sales for the trio hit US$5.9 billion, up by 230% from US$1.79 billion for the same period in 2020.  And perhaps not coincidentally, online-only sales at Christies, Sotheby’s, and Phillips have emerged as a major growth area.

Perhaps some of this demonstrable ‘resilience’ and growth can be attributed to the continued strength of the Asian market:  both Sotheby’s, and Christie’s recent summer sales witnessed a dominance of successful bidding by Hong Kong based collectors for much of the inventory at the higher end.

Another interesting development over the past 6 months has been the reported willingness by the auction houses to accept cryptocurrencies for several lots during the sales.  Whilst the houses might appear to be tailoring the inventory for this specific clientele, it certainly hasn’t resulted in an uptick in the sale of these works. 

Another growth area is what has been coined as the “red chip art phenomenon”, art market journalist Scott Reyburn’s new term to describe art by younger artists now appearing at auction and selling for well above retail values. 

As noted in a previous post, the current auction climate prices for young, figurative painters is exceeding that of some of the more historically expensive artists at auction, such as Koons and Picasso. The auction debut for Flora Yukhnovich for example at Phillips London sale, being a prime example. With an estimate of US$60,000 to US$80,000, it sold for an astonishing US$950,000 on the hammer (US$1.2 million with BP).  With only five solo shows to date and the artist having never received an institutional exhibition, this level of speculative buying has certainly reached new heights. 

Of course, the question on this point – is it sustainable…

Images:

Lot 50, Jeff Koons (b. 1955). Gazing Ball (Demeter), 2014. Plaster and glass. 123.8 x 86.7 x 102.9 cm. Sold for USD 998,000, Phillips, New York, 20th Century & Contemporary Art Evening Sale, 23 June 2021.

Lot 46, Banksy, Love Is In The Air, spray paint on canvas 20, 50.8 x 43.3 cm. Ed’n: 4/5 Sold for US $1,179,500, Phillips, New York, 20th Century & Contemporary Art Evening Sale, 23 June 2021.

 

©Catherine Asquith 2021

Menzies Winter Auction, 30 June 2021

Lot 47, Fiona Lowry, Limitless Are Leaves, Stiff or Drooping In The Fields, 2008, synthetic polymer paint on canvas, 152.0 x 219.0 cm, Estimate A$10,000 - A$15,000, Hammer Price + BP A$44,181.82

Lot 47, Fiona Lowry, Limitless Are Leaves, Stiff or Drooping In The Fields, 2008, synthetic polymer paint on canvas, 152.0 x 219.0 cm, Estimate A$10,000 - A$15,000, Hammer Price + BP A$44,181.82

Menzies’ recent auction of Australian and International Fine Art and Sculpture in Melbourne on 30 June produced some impressive results, with 92% of lots sold by volume and 81% by value for a total of AU$4,684,254 (including buyer’s premium).

Recent reports on the auction have suggested either a renewed interest in female artists or accordingly to Menzies’ post auction press release, “the strength of collector interest in female Australian artists, with works by Margaret Preston, Constance Stokes, Margaret Olley, Emily Kngwarreye and Inge King selling well above estimate.”  Either way, the results are on trend with global developments in market visibility of women artists – historical and contemporary.

And on this note, it was heartening to observe a new auction record achieved for contemporary painter Fiona Lowry, with her work at Lot 47 being knocked down for $36K on the hammer, against a high estimate of $AU15K.

The cover lot, Ben Quilty’s “Skull 3” did not immediately engage the punters, as perhaps expected of a feature lot, with initial bidding as tough as pulling teeth, only to sell at AU$140K on the hammer and at the mid-range of the estimate AU$120K to AU$160K.  More fervent bidding was had with Quilty’s “George Byrne Study” at Lot 9 selling for a solid AU$40K on the hammer against a high estimate of AU$18K.

Other highlights included Arthur Boyd’s “Flame Trees, Horse’s Skull, Black River” selling well at a hammer price of AU$170K, against a high estimate of AU$120K, while to my mind, the more sublime “Shoalhaven” at Lot 31 sold above its high estimate of AU$50K for a hammer of AU$62K; John Perceval’s “Windy Walk” saw energetic bidding to a hammer of A$64K against a high estimate of AU$45K; and the duo Storrier works of Lots 14 & 15 sold sell, with “Summer Evening” at a hammer of AU$46K and “Autumn Night Fire” at a hammer of AU$60K.

Unfortunately, the much anticipated interest in another work by Lin Onus from the “Numerili Suite” failed to eventuate on the night, with an opening of $140K being reluctantly accepted by Cameron Menzies as auctioneer; and the much traded “Kelly” by Sidney Nolan with an ambitious but market ready estimate of $500 to $700K (Smith & Singer’s “Kelly” work sold comfortably at their April 2021 auction for AU$613,636 incl BP) failed to elicit interest beyond the auctioneer’s opening bid of AU$360K.

©Catherine Asquith 2021

Christie’s $212.5 M. London and Paris Sales

On Wednesday, Christie’s staged its marquee modern and contemporary art sales in London and Paris. The back-to-back sales, made $212.5 million with buyer’s premium across 82 lots, hammering at $176.9 million, above the $128 million pre-sale estimate and realizing a strong 90 percent sell-through rate.

Notwithstanding the strength and dominance of Asian collectors at auctions over the past 6 months, for these particular sales, bidding from this region “was nothing out of the ordinary, with much of these buyers’ attention focused on a few lots by George Condo, Yayoi Kusama and Edgar Degas.”

Among the top lots, Picasso’s L’étreinte (1969) sold for £14.7 million ($20.3 million) in its auction debut. Two bidders from New York and London competed for the guaranteed work with the hammer eventually falling at £12.6 million ($17.4 million), putting the final sum just above its £11 million high estimate.

Alberto Giacometti’s bronze sculpture Falling Man (ca. 1950–51) attracted three bidders, two on the phone from New York and London and another from a man in the salesroom finally realizing a hammer price of £11.7 million ($16.2 million), meeting its low estimate of $16 million.

René Magritte La Vengeance (1936) drew interest from six clients, who drove the final price to £12.5 million ($17.3 million).

Read the full article here:

 

Images:
The 20th/21st Century: London Evening Sale - Live auction on 30 June at Christies King Street, London.
Photo: GUY BELL

Lot 8
PABLO PICASSO (1881-1973)
L'Étreinte
signed ‘Picasso’ (lower centre); dated ’23.10.69.’ (on the reverse)
oil on canvas
44 ¾ x 57 ½ in. (113.6 x 146 cm.)
Painted in Mougins on 23 October 1969

Sotheby’s (London) British & Modern Art Sale

Lot 114, Cy Twombly (1928 - 2011), Untitled, 1964, oil, wax crayon, and graphite on canvas, 100 by 109.8 cm. (39⅜ by 43¼ in.).  SOLD for a hammer price of £6.6 million (US$9.2 million)

Lot 114, Cy Twombly (1928 - 2011), Untitled, 1964, oil, wax crayon, and graphite on canvas, 100 by 109.8 cm. (39⅜ by 43¼ in.). SOLD for a hammer price of £6.6 million (US$9.2 million)

Sotheby’s staged its marquee British and Modern Art sales in London on 29 June. The back-to-back sales led by Sotheby’s veteran auctioneers Oliver Barker and Helena Newman made £156.2 million (US$217 million) combined across 83 lots, landing within the pre-sale estimate £119.7 million-£170.3 million (US$165.8 million–US$235.9 million) and seeing an 88 percent sell-through rate.

Highlights included the portrait of David Hockney by Lucian Freud from 2002 that went for £14.9 million (US$20.7 million) with buyer’s premium; Wassily Kandinsky’s abstract painting Tensions calmée (1937) realized £21.2 million (US$29.5 million) with buyer’s premium; and Pablo Picasso’s vibrant late-period double-figure portrait Homme et femme au bouquet (1970) selling to an Asian phone bidder for a hammer price of £8 million (US$11.1 million). 

Works by Warhol, Cy Twombly and Frank Auerbach also attracted strong interest.

Read the full report here

Centum Auction @ Leonard Joel

Lot 97, ANGELA BRENNAN (born 1960), “Yellow Painting”, 1998, oil on linen, 122 x 122cm

Lot 97, ANGELA BRENNAN (born 1960), “Yellow Painting”, 1998, oil on linen, 122 x 122cm

Leonard Joel’s “Centum” auction, a mid year celebration of 100 works by Australian artists managed to garner good interest and the occasional fierce bidding on selected lots.

Robert Owen’s “Origami Series, Untitled No 2” at Lot 8 enjoyed a comfortable escalation in bids selling at $9500 on the hammer against an estimate of $4500 to $5500; Tom Adair’s “Seidler House” at Lot 10 continued the strong bidding, and was knocked down for $10,000 on the hammer, double its high estimate of $5000; and RONE’s “Untitled (Jane Doe)” ‘street’ work inspired one pundit to bid to $23,000, against a high estimate of $15,000.

A slightly more sombre and considered mood prevailed for the next few lots, until Robert Hunter’s “Untitled No. 3” hit the rostrum as Lot 20, with some strong contention for acquisition taking the final bid to $40,000 against a high estimate of $25,000.

Other notable sales were John Kelly’s “Dobell’s Cow VI” selling on the hammer for $19,000 (Lot 25); Nicholas Harding’s nicely marketed “In the swell (Lilo girl, Swim Ring and Figures)” at Lot 29 selling for $30,000 on the hammer just above it high estimate of $28,000; Marina Strocchi’s “The Pinnacles” at Lot 64 selling for un expected $7000 against a high estimate of $3500; Jenny Watson’s erudite “Angel” at Lot 76 excitedly selling for $9000 against its high estimate of $5500; and a beautifully balanced work by Angela Brennan, aptly entitled “Yellow Painting” at Lot 97 selling at $9500 against a high estimate of $6000.

There were some disappointing albeit surprises; the cover lot for the beautifully presented catalogue to the auction, Peter Smets’ “View Point” only just garnered its hammer price of $23,000 slightly lower than its high estimate; generally always a hotly contested artist, the Adam Cullen “Toilet Training” canvas at Lot 34 also only just met its low estimate of $18,000; and the delightful Celia Perceval “White Cockies Flying Through the Gully with Wild Roses” at Lot 27 sold at $6500 on the hammer, just below its low estimate of $7000.

“Centum” is a well-placed contemporary art auction in terms of scheduling, and with this in mind, of the unsold lots, at least half should sell post-auction.

©Catherine Asquith 2021